Ukrainian forces have indeed resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region of Russia on at least three sectors within the Ukrainian salient and achieved tactical advancements on January 5, confirmed analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.
They write this in their new report, also publishing a map of the new Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.
ISW specialists summarize claims from Russian sources that Ukrainian forces conducted attacks in three directions:
conducted numerous mechanized assaults on the Berdynsko-Novosotnytsky direction (northeast of Sudzha) during three waves of attacks, involving approximately up to a battalion of armored vehicles; intensified offensive actions towards Leonidovo (southeast of Korenevo); conducted an enhanced mechanized assault with a strength of up to a platoon near Pushkarne (east of Sudzha).Meanwhile, geo-located footage published on January 5 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the fields southwest and south of the Berdyn homestead in the Kursk region and entered the southern part of the settlement.
Russian "military correspondents" also published updated maps of the Kursk combat area, indicating that Ukrainian forces, as of January 5, also occupy Cherkasskoye Porichne, Martynovka, and Mikhailovka (all settlements northeast of Sudzha and southwest of Berdyn). Additionally, Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces recently entered Novosotnytsky (east of Berdyn); and also advanced in the fields west of the Yamsky Step settlement (directly northwest of Berdyn) and west of Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha and northwest of Berdyn).
Furthermore, it is reported that Ukrainian forces also conducted offensive operations near Nikolskoe and Aleksandriya (east and southeast of Leonidovo, respectively) and north of Ruska Konopelka (east of Sudzha) towards Pushkarne with small infantry groups. However, Russian sources do not provide details on the scale or any achievements of Ukraine in these areas.
Russian "military correspondents" mostly expressed concern that the renewed Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region could be diversionary efforts, asserting that it is still too early to determine whether these operations could be part of Ukraine’s future main efforts in a new offensive.
Simultaneously, Russian forces probably also advanced southeast of Sudzha and conducted counterattacks against intense Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5, according to ISW. Specifically, geo-located footage published on January 5 indicates that Russian forces advanced in the western and southern parts of Makhnivka (southeast of Sudzha). And Russian "military correspondents" claimed that Russian paratroopers (VDV) allegedly pushed Ukrainian forces away from Makhnivka and Dmitryukov (directly northeast of Makhnivka). However, one of the leading pro-Kremlin "military correspondents" suggested that Russian forces advanced in the Makhnivka area "some time ago". Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on January 4 that Russian and North Korean forces lost up to a battalion of infantry near Makhnivka on January 3 and 4.
Amid the new Ukrainian offensive, Russian sources complained about the ability of Russian military to respond to Ukraine’s capability to conduct combined arms operations - specifically integrating the use of electronic warfare (EW) systems and long-range strikes with ground operations. Several Russian "military correspondents" stated on January 5 that interference from Ukrainian EW systems during Ukrainian assaults in the Kursk region hindered Russian forces from using drones in this area, impairing the ability of Russian troops to defend against Ukrainian mechanized attacks. According to "military correspondents," drones operating on fiber optic cables were among the few options that managed to withstand Ukrainian EW measures (although some Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces were able to use some FPV drones and Lancets).
Russian officials also claimed on January 5 that Russian forces allegedly shot down three Ukrainian missiles (of unspecified type) over the Kursk region. This claim suggests that Ukrainian forces are likely trying to integrate long-range strike capabilities on Russian territory with ground operations and the deployment of tactical EW systems, ISW emphasizes.
One of the Russian "military correspondents" claimed that Ukrainian forces launched HIMARS strikes near Velikiy Soldatsky and other unspecified areas of the Kursk region to thwart Russian forces from deploying reinforcements, artillery systems, and drone operators.
ISW, for its part, notes widespread concern among Russians about Russia’s ability to respond to enhanced Ukrainian EW technologies and long-range strike capabilities. This indicates that Russian forces may find it difficult to quickly adapt to Ukrainian innovations on the battlefield, suggest analysts from the Institute for the Study of War. Reports that Ukrainian forces employ long-range strikes to disrupt Russian rear areas and EW to disable Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized means suggest that Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region are employing more effective combined arms tactics.