In 2024, the salaries of Ukrainians increased by 23%. The NBU forecasts that the growth rate will gradually decrease but remain high.
This is reported in the "Inflation Report" of the National Bank of Ukraine (July 2025).
According to the updated macro forecast of the NBU, in 2025, the average salary of Ukrainians will increase by 19.0%. However, the average inflation rate for the year will be 13.3%. This will result in a real wage increase of 5.2%.
As noted in the review, the growth of real wages decreased to 9.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025; based on high-frequency indirect indicators, the decline continued in the second quarter.
Many other sources of income for the population, including social benefits and pensions, weakened in real terms.
"Real wages will continue to grow in conditions where demand exceeds labor supply and overall economic activity revives. However, at slower rates (4-5% per year) due to the gradual balancing of labor market imbalances and non-price competition among employers," states the review.
According to the NBU forecast, prolonged migration outflow and slow return of migrants will lead to the persistence of labor shortages and significant unevenness across activities and regions. This will hinder economic recovery and stimulate further wage increases at higher rates than productivity growth, which will intensify inflationary pressure.
Updated NBU forecast
According to the NBU, the average nominal salary in Ukraine in 2023 rose by 17.4%, and the real salary (considering inflation) by 3.7%.
In 2024, the nominal salary increased by 23.2%, and the real salary by 15.6%.
The NBU expects that in 2025, the growth of nominal salary will reach 19.0% (the previous forecast for April was 17.70), and real salary by 5.2% (3.9%).
The NBU expects that in 2026, the nominal salary will increase by 13.0%, and the real salary by 5.1%. In 2027, the nominal salary will rise by 9.6%, and the real salary by 3.8%.