ISW assessed the possibility of an attack by the Russian army on Kharkiv

ISW assessed the possibility of an attack by the Russian army on Kharkiv

The threat of Russia’s upcoming offensive operation against Kharkiv, news of which is surfacing in the media, is forcing Ukraine to allocate additional resources to its defense. However, both the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and military experts note that the invaders do not have enough forces necessary to capture the second largest city in Ukraine.

This is not the first time that analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed this out. Before drawing such conclusions, they assessed the situation, in particular, referring to the statements of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Earlier, he confirmed that Ukrainian forces are monitoring an increase in the number of Russian troops regrouping in the Kharkiv direction. It is assumed that he was referring to the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, saying that the defenders had strengthened defensive positions in the “most threatening” areas of the border with additional artillery and tank units.

“Syrskyi’s statement does not give any indication of the inevitability of a possible Russian offensive operation against Kharkiv, which was recently warned about,” ISW emphasized.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian troops will regroup units of the 11th Army Corps and the 6th Combined Arms Army (Leningrad Military District) from the Kupyansk direction to the newly formed Northern Group of Forces. According to him, its best-equipped elements are concentrated in the Belhorod direction.

Units of the 6th Army previously had sole responsibility for Russian offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, especially in the Sinkovka area. Syrskyi noted that the Defence Forces have recently improved their position. For their part, pro-military Russian bloggers confirmed that Russian troops retreated a short distance from Synkivka due to a lack of manpower in the area, suggesting that they had withdrawn at least some elements of the 6th Army.

“We have not observed reports of actions by elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army in the Kupyansk direction since the end of March; Russian troops are not conducting active offensive operations in areas where elements of this army previously attacked,” ISW noted.

They added that these units participated in offensive operations near Synkivka, which began in October 2023 and continued throughout the winter and early spring of 2024. The probable formations of the 25th and 128th motorized rifle brigades of this army in December 2023 carried out several company mechanized attacks in the village area, which led to significant losses of armored vehicles and the absence of tactically significant successes.

“The failure of the brigades to capture Sinkovka, despite repeated massive infantry and mechanized attacks during the months-long offensive, calls into question their combat effectiveness, as well as the combat effectiveness of the entire 6th Army and the Northern Group of Russian Forces as a whole. Therefore, a potential future Russian offensive to capture Kharkiv “will be an extremely ambitious undertaking that will create serious problems for Russian forces, especially since they will face better-equipped Ukrainian Armed Forces upon the arrival of US military assistance,” the analysts concluded.

ISW believes that the occupiers are learning from past mistakes in operational planning and, intimidating them with the threat of their “march” on Kharkiv, are trying to ensure that Ukraine stretches its forces to a wider front line in the east on the eve of the predicted “big” summer offensive of the Russian Federation.