Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession: State Statistics Service recorded a GDP decline in the first quarter

Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession: State Statistics Service recorded a GDP decline in the first quarter

The State Statistics Service has officially confirmed the decline of the Ukrainian economy in the first quarter of 2026: GDP decreased by 0.5% year-over-year (compared to the first quarter of 2025) and by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter (the fourth quarter of 2025).

If the GDP decline continues for two consecutive quarters, it will allow us to speak of a recession — a sustained economic downturn.

Most likely, this is what caused the National Bank’s worsening forecast for the economy in 2026 last week: from 1.8% to 1.3%.

NBU Governor Andriy Pysnyi explained this not only by the slowdown in economic activity in Ukraine at the beginning of the year, attacks on the energy system, cold winter, and delays in international funding, but also by the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East.

For reference: at the end of 2025, the State Statistics Service recorded Ukraine’s GDP growth of 1.8%, which was a significant slowdown compared to previous years (2.9% in 2024, 5.3% in 2023 after a decline of almost 29% in 2022).