DeepState: The situation around Kostyantynivka is developing according to the worst-case scenario for the AFU

DeepState: The situation around Kostyantynivka is developing according to the worst-case scenario for the AFU

The situation around Kostyantynivka is developing according to the most difficult scenario for the AFU.

This is reported by the Ukrainian military public DeepState.

According to its data, Russian troops have already approached the outskirts of the city from virtually all directions, are exerting strong pressure on the defense, and are gradually infiltrating deeper into Kostyantynivka. The appearance of Russian infantry from the east via Novodmytrivka has been recorded, as well as constant advances from the directions of Berestok and Illinivka.

DeepState believes that after reaching advantageous lines, the Russian army is moving to the gradual “absorption” of the city. They draw an analogy with Pokrovsk: the enemy has room to maneuver, changes positions as needed, and deploys significantly more infantry than the Defense Forces can counter.

Analysts identify one of the main threats as Russian troops’ attempt to reach the isthmus in the northern part of the city. This could cut off the central and southern districts of Kostyantynivka from normal supply. According to DeepState’s assessment, for this Russia only needs to bring infantry there, set up ambushes, and establish fire control using drones.

At the same time, Russian troops continue to destroy the city itself. DeepState notes that Kostyantynivka is being systematically turned into ruins, which will become increasingly difficult to hold over time. The Russian army achieves quick results at the cost of heavy losses; however, as the authors emphasize, this does not change the overall dynamics of the fighting.

“In Pokrovsk they also lost a lot of infantry, which was constantly written about in the Ukrainian information space, but in the end they took the city, while we also suffered colossal losses,” the report says.

DeepState calls Kostyantynivka the “gateway” to the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. In the public’s view, if the city is captured, the next stage will be an offensive on Druzhkivka, which currently performs an important logistical function, and then on Kramatorsk.

After the loss of Kostyantynivka, analysts believe, AFU logistics in the area will deteriorate significantly, any movements will become much more difficult, and even staying in Kramatorsk will be far more dangerous due to Russian drone operations.

DeepState also warns that Russia may try to open another axis toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk farther south — in the sector from Mykolaivka to Malynivka, where Ukrainian units are experiencing a shortage of personnel.