ISW: Russian operations in the Vovchansk sector do not facilitate immediate advance towards Kharkiv

Military analysts are convinced that Russian operations in the Vovchansk sector are not conducive to an immediate advance towards Kharkiv, as Vovchansk is located on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and the Pechenizhske Reservoir.

These operations may be intended to draw Ukrainian units away from other areas or allow Russian forces to put pressure on the operational rear of Ukrainian forces defending the Kupyansk direction.

ISW analysts also assess an attack on Kharkiv from the Lyptsi area as unlikely due to the vulnerability of this route. They assume that the occupiers are conducting offensive actions in the Liptsy area because it is the most direct way to advance into the zone of effective range of barrel artillery, which will allow indirect fire on Kharkiv.

The ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely have difficulty capturing Kharkiv, if they seek to do so.

Russian efforts to capture the city of Kharkiv would require long cross-country movements on a scale that Russian forces have not undertaken since the start of the full-scale invasion. Experts suggest that some units of Russia’s Northern Military Group may not be very combat-ready, including due to a lack of personnel necessary for the successful conduct of such an ambitious operation.

According to some Russian sources, the Russians need an additional 300,000 soldiers to surround Kharkiv. However, at present, according to various estimates, there are between 35,000 and 50,000 troops in the area of the international border.

Thus, according to the Institute, a large-scale Russian attempt to capture Kharkiv would likely require Russian troops to redeploy a significant number of forces from other parts of the frontline to the border area, which Russian forces are unlikely to do given their goal of capturing the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.