Financial Times: The defence of Avdiivka is a difficult decision for Ukraine

Financial Times: The defence of Avdiivka is a difficult decision for Ukraine

The decision to defend Avdiivka with a stubborn determination in the face of a shortage of men and ammunition could prove as costly for Ukraine as the loss of experienced fighters in Bakhmut, which undermined the summer counteroffensive.

The Financial Times writes about this.

“In October and perhaps December and early January, it could be argued that Ukraine was inflicting disproportionate attrition on the Russian attackers. Now this argument is much more difficult to make,” says military analyst Henry Schlottman.

In his opinion, the redeployment of the 3rd Assault Brigade to Avdiivka could still mean an intention to withdraw from the city. But Zelenskyy and Syrskyi may also have "rational reasons" to try to hold on to it. In particular, this would give time to prepare defensive positions further west. And it could create a symbol of Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian forces, which would boost spirits.

"The question for the Ukrainian leader and his high command is at what cost. They will have to find a ’tricky’ balance between preserving their forces and inflicting more damage on the enemy than they themselves will suffer," said Mykola Belyeskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.

According to Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and military strategist, the battle of Avdiivka will provide insight into how Syrskyi can close "the gap between his president’s desired political outcomes with Ukraine’s dwindling military resources."

“Like Bakhmut, the president appears reluctant to give up Avdiivka, even if the military situation indicates that withdrawal may now be the best option to preserve the remaining fighters. It will be very difficult not to give up territory and maintain fighting forces in the current conditions,” Ryan said.