Fiscal risk for the state: "Ukrposhta" on the brink of default

"Ukrposhta" remains unprofitable and requires recapitalization. The government warns of the risks of default for the state-owned company.

This became known from the draft budget for 2026 (No. 14000).

In the annex "Information on Fiscal Risks," an assessment of the company’s financial condition is provided.

Losses and decline in liquidity

As noted in the document, JSC "Ukrposhta" provides universal postal services, pays pensions and social assistance, distributes press, and offers financial services. The company is state-owned, with the Ministry of Development acting as the shareholder.

In 2024, "Ukrposhta" recorded a loss of 413.2 million UAH (compared to 796.4 million UAH in 2023). Liquidity decreased by 9%, and current liabilities exceeded current assets by 3.7 billion UAH. The liquidity ratio dropped from 0.69 in 2023 to 0.63 in 2024.

The debt burden is extremely high—in 2024, the debt-to-assets ratio reached 98%.

Scenarios for the Company

Capital expenditures are currently focused on developing the logistics network through loans from the EBRD (63 million euros) and the EIB (30 million euros).

Under the baseline scenario for 2025-2028, profitability is expected due to increased parcel revenues and controlled expenses. The alternative scenario assumes volatility: in 2026, the company may return to losses. Under the negative scenario, losses are projected throughout the entire period, with a sharp deterioration after 2025.

This will also affect contributions to the state budget: from stable (baseline scenario) to none in 2026 (alternative scenario) or a complete absence (negative scenario).

Risks of default

The document states that the issue of transferring the First Investment Bank to "Ukrposhta" to create a financial inclusion bank is currently under consideration. However, the NBU has reservations due to the critical state of the company.

According to the NBU, between 2022 and 2024, "Ukrposhta" incurred losses of 2.5 billion UAH, and its capitalization dropped from 2.8 billion UAH to 0.2 billion UAH.

This "creates real risks of the company defaulting to creditors in the context of further capital depletion, which will raise the question of the need for recapitalization of the strategic enterprise," the document states.

The required recapitalization amount is estimated at no less than 826 million UAH as of May 2025.

At the same time, the First Investment Bank itself is unprofitable, lacks a business model, and violates the regulatory capital requirement. Meanwhile, the NBU notes the advisability of considering the option of surrendering the license to avoid further accumulation of risks and capital depletion, the government added.